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09/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- This afternoon's showdown between the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Oakland Athletics may have little effect on the American League playoff race, but fans attending the Coliseum today should be treated to a top-notch pitching matchup between a pair of All-Stars.
The Angels' sputtering offense will have to go up against A's standout Trevor Cahill in the second test of this three-game series, while the three-time defending AL West champions counter with ace Jered Weaver in hopes of evening this set and avenging last night's 8-0 loss to their division rival.
Cahill has been marvelous in his second major league season, with the talented youngster having compiled a 14-6 record along with a 2.82 earned run average over 24 starts. He's been especially tough on the Coliseum mound, having gone 8-2 with a sensational 1.84 ERA in 11 outings and limiting the opposition to a meager .194 batting average.
The right-hander will have to bounce back from a subpar showing in his most recent appearance, however, a four-inning stint on the road against the New York Yankees on Monday in which Cahill was rocked for eight runs and nine hits and served up a pair of homers. Prior to that defeat, he had posted a 5-1 record and an 0.77 ERA over a six-start stretch from July 28-August 25 and worked at least seven innings in each of those games.
Cahill will be seeking a third straight winning start against the Angels at the Coliseum. The 22-year-old yielded just one run in eight innings in a home victory over Anaheim on June 10, then held the Halos to an unearned run and five hits through seven strong frames a month later.
In six career starts versus the Angels, Cahill is 3-1 with an excellent 2.09 ERA.
Oakland's emerging ace will get to face an Anaheim team that's mustered only 11 runs while losing five of its last seven games and was shut out for the third time in a week with Friday's verdict. The Angels could manage a mere five hits against Gio Gonzalez and three A's relievers in last night's setback.
Gonzalez (13-8) worked the first six innings and allowed just four hits and three walks while fanning six batters, with Michael Wuertz, Henry Rodriguez and Brad Ziegler combining to let up only one hit the rest of the way.
The victory halted a string of four straight losses for the Athletics and enabled them to gain some ground on first-place Texas in the AL West, although the Rangers still own a comfortable nine-game lead in the standings.
"We wanted a win tonight," said Gonzalez afterward. "We wanted to stop the bleeding. Our bats were swinging today, we were hot. We felt good and it was good to be back home."
Oakland had a 2-0 lead after the first six innings, then scored six times in the seventh to break open the contest. Kevin Kouzmanoff and Cliff Pennington each belted two-run homers during the outburst, with Rajai Davis and Gabe Gross contributing RBI singles.
Angels starter Scott Kazmir (8-13) was able to hold the Athletics to two runs despite walking a season-high six batters in his 5 2/3-inning stint, with Oakland registering only two hits off the left-hander.
"Once I was able to keep the direction toward home plate, it felt a little easier to throw the ball where I wanted," said Kazmir of his performance.
Weaver will take the ball today seeking to end a personal three-start losing streak. Although the competitive right-hander didn't pitch well in two of those defeats, he's received no help from his club's punchless offense as well, as the Angels were shut out in each of those three games.
The 27-year-old was outstanding in Sunday's tough-luck 1-0 loss to Baltimore, permitting just the one run and five hits in eight innings. Weaver also struck out 11 Orioles on the day to run his season total to 200, tied with Seattle's Felix Hernandez for the most in the majors this year.
Weaver hasn't been as sharp when he's pitched at the Coliseum this year, however. The former first-round draft choice was tagged for six runs and 12 hits over six innings in a lopsided road loss to the A's on June 8, and surrendered five runs in six frames while being outdueled by Cahill in a June 11 clash held in Oakland.
In 14 career starts against the Athletics, Weaver is 3-5 with a 3.42 ERA.
These two AL West foes have split 14 meetings thus far in 2010, with Oakland having prevailed in five of eight bouts held at the Coliseum.
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jenrry Mejia makes his first major league start this
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- After mother nature delayed the opening of this important
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The arriv
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- The New York Yankees have solved just about all their
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Rockies try to pin ninth straight loss on reeling Padres >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres try to avoid a ninth straight loss
this afternoon, when they play the middle test of their three-game series with
the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park.
San Diego's slide continued in the opener of this s
Braves try to bounce back in key series with Marlins >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Johnson hopes for a better result than the last time
he faced Atlanta when he and the Florida Marlins continue their three-game
set with the Braves tonight at Sun Life Stadium.
Johnson surrendered just three hits and
Rays resume playoff push in second test with Orioles >>
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Halladay aims to pitch surging Phils past Brewers >>
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Halladay has lost his last two starts, t
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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