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02/06/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - How many times does a gambler like a horse and wish the odds could have been much higher than they were? It does not happen that often but when the unforeseen takes place, it's best to take the money and ask questions later.
I'll Have Another, 12-1 on the morning line in this past Saturday's Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, was surprisingly 43-1 come post time against seven other runners, four of which were stakes winners. Furthermore, the three favorites - Liaison, Rousing Sermon, and Sky Kingdom - were all represented on many Top 10 Kentucky Derby lists.
The longshot came into the race off a long layoff - his last appearance was all the way back in September at Saratoga in the Hopeful Stakes, a race he was beaten by 19-lengths. However, it is important to note the Hopeful was run in the slop, a surface I'll Have Another apparently did not appreciate. He also had to travel cross-country from his home base of California and that might have played a factor in the poor performance as well.
Prior to that race, I'll Have Another finished second to Creative Cause (one of the this year's leading three-year-olds) in the Grade II Best Pal Stakes a little over a month after breaking his maiden in his debut at Hollywood Park.
As noted in last week's column, trainer Doug O'Neill had worked his chestnut colt longer distances in January to prepare him for the two-turn, 1 1/16-mile race. In fact, I'll Have Another put forth a bullet six-furlong workout on Jan. 11 in 1:12 2/5, followed by a pair of seven-furlong works leading into the Robert B. Lewis.
It also must be stated that I'll Have Another is bred to race over a distance of ground. His sire, Flower Alley, won the 2005 Travers Stakes. Flower Alley is by Distorted Humor, who has sent out both Funny Cide and Drosselmeyer to win Triple Crown races.
I'll Have Another's dam side is even more impressive with multiple "stayers" going back over the last four generations, including the likes of Arch, Kris S, Pleasant Tap, Roberto, and Pleasant Colony.
Given all of his credentials, there was no reason he should have gone off at 43-1. Sometimes bettors get lucky and those are the instances on which to capitalize.
As for the race itself, it was the second fastest Robert B. Lewis as I'll Have Another finished the 1 1/16-mile in a brisk 1:40 4/5. After running his third quarter in 23 2/5 seconds, the $35,000 purchase came home in 30 2/5. The track was playing fast all day as Ultimate Eagle won the 1 1/8-mile Strub Stakes in 1:47, but breaking 1:41 for 1 1/16-miles is still extremely notable.
I'll Have Another prevailed easily by 2 3/4-lengths with Empire Way rallying on the rail for second. The favored Liaison, who didn't fire, dumped rider Rafael Bejarano through the stretch after being interfered with by Groovin' Solo. Moreover, Sky Kingdom barely lifted a hoof with his sixth-place finish.
I'll Have Another will stick to morning workouts until returning to the races in the Santa Anita Derby on Apr. 7.
ALPHA REPEATS COUNT FLEET WIN IN THE WITHERS
Alpha dominated an outclassed group in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday taking the Grade II race by 3 1/4-lengths over 44-1 shot Speightcity.
The Kiaran McLaughlin-trained colt ran the 1 1/16-miles in 1:44 1/5 as the 3-10 favorite. The most important part of Alpha's races are usually the few seconds before the race and the initial moment he comes out of the starting gate as he's had much more trouble in those spots compared to the running of the race itself.
In the Withers, Alpha entered the gate without a hitch and broke well from the outside post. The son of Bernardini went a tad wide around the first turn but settled in nicely a few lengths off the early pace set by How Do I Win. He then pulled into the lead at the head of the stretch and drew clear with three taps of the whip from jockey Ramon Dominguez.
Alpha will more than likely rest in the month of March while preparing for the Wood Memorial the same day as the Santa Anita Derby. The public will get a good read on how much he has improved in that race as his competition will be much stiffer in the $1 million race.
A MAIDEN NO MORE
Battle Hardened came into the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs without a victory in three career starts. Now the son of Giant's Causeway has $120,000 of graded earnings after winning the Grade III race by 1 1/4-lengths over Prospective.
The Tampa Bay Derby looks like the logical next step for Battle Hardened and quite possibly Prospective, Reveron, and Ravelo's Boy as those three were noses apart for second, third, and fourth.
Don't expect any one of those four to be Kentucky Derby contenders as the race was run in a slow 1:44 2/5 seconds with the winner needing almost 32 seconds to finish his final five-sixteenths. Older horses ran the 1 1/16-miles in 1:43 earlier on the card.
KEY ALLOWANCE RACE ON THURSDAY
A pair of impressive maiden winners will meet at Santa Anita on Thursday when Bob Baffert's Fed Biz hooks up with Mike Puype's Consulado. Both were beaten in their debuts but came back strong in their next start.
Fed Biz won at Santa Anita on Dec. 30 stopping the clock in an impressive 1:35 2/5 for the one-mile event while Consulado won by 7 1/4-lengths going 6 1/2- Furlongs in 1:15 flat. Fed Biz is the more regally bred of the two and has the advantage in this two-turn race.
FUTURE WAGER - POOL ONE
The first Future Wager comes this weekend with 24 wagering interests (23 individual horses and the "Field," which includes every other horse).
Look for all 12 of my "Dirty Dozen" to be single entrants along with these 11, listed in alphabetical order: Battle Hardened, Consortium, Dullahan, Empire Way, Ever So Lucky, Liaison, Midnight Transfer, Motor City, Rousing Sermon, Russian Greek, and Take Charge Indy. Of these 11, the ones I would consider wagering on are Empire Way and Russian Greek as both are bred to run all day.
The Key question of the week is how will the results of the Robert B. Lewis affect the odds in the Future Wager?
First off, Liaison will certainly be much higher than he would have if he had won. Second, I'll Have Another will now not be lumped in with the "Field." In addition, a lot of bettors might think his victory was a fluke so his odds could still be high, just not as humongous as they were last Saturday. Sky Kingdom will most likely be one of the "Field" horses so those who want to toss the race will not be helped out by the results.
I expect Union Rags to be favored with Algorithms a close second-choice. People will still bet Hansen so look for between 15 and 20-1 on the two-year- old champ. Out of Bounds and El Padrino will also get a lot of action, as will Creative Cause and Alpha.
For those wagering in Pool 1, I would suggest putting a few dollars on I'll Have Another and Gemologist, along with the aforementioned Empire Way and Russian Greek, if those two are single entrants.
THE JEFF FRANK "DIRTY DOZEN"
1) Union Rags - Looks to continue the trend of two three-year-old starts before the Derby; 2) Algorithms - His first two-turn race will answer more questions; 3) I'll Have Another - Won't be 43-1 again; 4) Gemologist - Had his first work of the year on Sunday - 3 in 39 4/5; 5) Discreet Dancer - Needs to show he can handle two turns; 6) Alpha - Has the right pedigree for the first Saturday in May; 7) Out of Bounds - Awaits the San Felipe in early March; 8) Creative Cause - A series of six-furlong works will give him more foundation for future two-turn races; 9) El Padrino - Pletcher's fourth horse in the top nine moves up on off track; 10) Hansen - Must rebound in his next start or he is off the list; 11) Sabercat - Hasn't worked since early December; 12) Fed Biz - A big win on Thursday will shoot him further up the ladder
<< Manning wins another Super Bowl MVP
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The injured Patriot, who set the tight end record for receiving yards and
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Cirstea advances in Thailand >>
Pattaya City, Thailand (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Romanian Sorana Cirstea was an easy
first-round winner Monday at the $220,000 Pattaya Open tennis tournament.
The seventh-seeded Cirstea blew past Japanese Erika Sema 6-2, 6-2 on the
hardcourt
Marquette and DePaul meet in Big East action >>
Rosemont, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off a humbling loss, the Marquette
Golden Eagles will try to bounce back tonight against the DePaul Blue Demons
in a Big East Conference battle at Allstate Arena.
This will be the 111th meeting in the a
Big 12 brawl pits Missouri against Oklahoma >>
Norman, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Missouri Tigers set their sights on
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Leafs hope to extend win streak in clash with surging Oilers >>
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Chicago, IL - New Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler and star linebacker Brian Urlacher shot down reports of a rift, saying they're simply not true.
"There's nothing between us," Cutler said Thursday, when he reported to training camp. "I just want to put that to rest. There never has been anything between us."
Urlacher added: "I never said what I was quoted as saying and that's it. I have a lot of respect for Jay. I think Jay knows that."
Former Bears receiver Bobby Wade caused a stir when he told Minneapolis radio station KFAN-AM that Urlacher used a profanity while questioning Cutler's manhood during a conversation in Las Vegas last weekend. Wade, who now plays for the Vikings, said Urlacher used a profane version of the word "wimp" during the interview that had to be edited out.
go radio station WSCR-AM also reported that Urlacher had to be restrained from confronting Cutler during organized team activities.
"I wouldn't go face-to-face with Brian, anyway," Cutler said. "No, that's never happened. I've hung out with Brian away from the facility numerous times and we've always gotten along."
Urlacher, noting he was limited by a groin injury, denied the reports in an interview with the Chicago Tribune and did it again when he reported to camp.
"I didn't practice this summer, so I don't know how I would fight the guy if I didn't practice," Urlacher said. "We have no problems. I'm excited about football starting. I'm excited to have him as our quarterback."
Why would Wade say that?
"I don't know," Urlacher said. "Maybe he's jealous because we have a good quarterback now."
Cutler said the first he heard of any friction was when he got a call from Urlacher to clear the air. Urlacher, however, said he had already taken several calls from teammates wondering if the reports were true when Cutler phoned.
"He called me and I said, What's up (expletive), what are you doing?'" a grinning Urlacher said, uttering the same word he allegedly used with Wade. "It's so dumb to me that this even got to this point, but it did and then here we are."
better place after going 9-7 and missing the playoffs for the second straight year. They have a franchise quarterback for the first time in decades after acquiring Cutler in an offseason trade with Denver. But there are questions about his attitude following a fallout with Broncos management and new coach Josh McDaniels.
His critics include former Bears coach Mike Ditka and former Indianapolis and Tampa Bay coach Tony Dungy, one of Smith's mentors. Smith, however, said Cutler has been a model teammate so far while denying any animosity with Urlacher.
"There's no issue with Jay and Brian, except Brian and Jay are both excited about being teammates for our club this year," coach Lovie Smith said. "No more than that. We can't spend a whole lot of time on something that isn't true. I have talked to the players. Whenever something comes out, you have to address it, but it's a non-issue."
In some ways, Cutler is getting a second chance in Chicago, an opportunity to repair his reputation.
Smith said another quarterback - Michael Vick - deserves one, although he doesn't see it happening with the Bears, who lack an experienced backup. The former Atlanta Falcons star, who served a 23-month sentence for running a dogfighting ring, said Thursday he is getting close to signing with a pro football team.
"A second chance, like everyone in society who has paid their debt to society," Smith said. "He deserves a second chance. As far as we're concerned, we like this team that we have right now."
Particularly the new quarterback.
"Me and Brian have been on a good relationship since I've been here, and I expect it to continue that way," Cutler said.
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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends
We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS. Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned. For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go. As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190). Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet. For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction. On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later. Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick. Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com
New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors
Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season.
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times.
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season.
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS.
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”. With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit. Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.
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