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02/05/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Miami Heat forward Chris Bosh said a few days ago it's important for this team to make the essential adjustments following a loss.
"If we lose one or two, we need to make the necessary adjustments, get it done and cut that down," Bosh told the Miami Herald. "That's the next step."
Bosh, his teammates and the coaching staff aired their grievances and offered suggestions on what they can do to make this team better after blowing a lead against Milwaukee in Wednesday's 105-97 loss. The meeting of the minds worked in a big win at Philadelphia Friday night and the Heat look to build off of that triumph in a Super Bowl matinee this afternoon versus Toronto. The New England Patriots will face the New York Giants tonight in Super Bowl XLVI.
The Heat are back in south Florida following their two-day sojourn and will host both the Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers. Winners in nine of their last 11 games, the Heat recorded a 99-79 victory over the pesky 76ers at a packed Wells Fargo Center and were led by Dwyane Wade's 26 points. LeBron James turned in another solid performance with 19 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists for Miami, which used a 27-8 run to start the fourth quarter and outscored the Sixers by a 32-16 margin in the final stanza.
"The most important thing is that this team improved in 48 hours," Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said. "This was a very good team win against a very good team that has been playing well."
Mario Chalmers and Bosh scored 13 and 12 points, respectively, while Mike Miller also had 12 points and Norris Cole added 11 in the win. The Heat shot 51.9 percent and aim for a fifth straight win at home Sunday. They are 10-2 as the host and own a 1 1/2-game lead over Atlanta for the top spot in the Southeast Division. Miami is 12-3 versus the Eastern Conference this season and sports a 5-0 mark against Atlantic Division inhabitants. It has won nine in a row against teams from that division during the regular season.
A win today for the Heat would match their best 24-game start to a season since an 18-6 ledger in both the 1996-97 and 1998-99 campaigns. Another victory would also put them a season-high 12 games above the .500 mark. James is the best candidate to make that happen and is the only player in the NBA to average at least 20 points, seven rebounds and seven assists per game. He has posted at least 15 points, five rebounds and five assists in 25 straight games, and only one other player in league history has registered those numbers in at least that many contests. Hall of Famer Oscar Robertson turned the trick on three other occasions.
Robertson, named one of the 50 Greatest Players in NBA history in 1996, had a 26-game streak in the 1962-63 season and two years later accomplished the feat in a league-best 29 consecutive contests (1964-65). "The Big O" had a 25-gamer in the 1963-64 season.
Meanwhile, the Raptors have won four of their last seven games since a grueling eight-game losing streak and will play back-to-back road games against Miami and Washington. They are just 5-10 away from home this season.
Toronto is coming off of Friday's 106-89 win over the Wizards at Air Canada Centre, as Leandro Barbosa scored a team-best 19 points and Amir Johnson posted 18 points and 13 rebounds. Barbosa was able to shake off flu-like symptoms and missed the team's shootaround.
"It feels good, it was a breakout game for me," Johnson said. "I talked to coach, he told me just to be patient and just play."
James Johnson netted 13 points and Jose Calderon collected eight and a game- high 17 assists for the Raptors, who had a lopsided 61-37 advantage in rebounds and bounced back from a 100-64 loss at Boston on Wednesday. The 61 boards were a franchise record in regulation. Toronto had 65 rebounds in an overtime game against New York back on March 21, 1999.
Toronto's bench scored a season-high 68 points against Washington. The team can match their road win total of last season (6) with an improbable triumph Sunday against the Heat. Raptors center Andrea Bargnani missed his 11th game of the season with a nagging calf injury. Toronto is 2-9 without Bargnani, who is out indefinitely and leads the team with 23.5 points in 13 games.
The Raptors lost all four meetings with the Heat last season and are winless in the previous five contests in this series. Toronto has also lost four straight and nine of 12 trips to south Florida. Raptors forward DeMar DeRozan is averaging 16.0 points in seven career games against Miami, while James is posting 27.8 points, 7.6 rebounds and 7.6 assists in 28 career matchups with Toronto. Wade is averaging 27.5 ppg in 21 career games in this series.
<< Jets wrap road trip against Canadiens
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Luckily for the Winnipeg Jets, they got a day of rest
before wrapping their six-game road trip.
The Jets hope to break even on the swing this afternoon in a meeting with the
Montreal Canadiens, who are still searching for
<< Rangers, Flyers meet for first time since Winter Classic
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Rangers are enjoying a solid run of success as of late
over the rival Flyers. After all, in the past year they have beaten them in
New York and Philadelphia as well as indoors and outside.
New York seeks a sixth straig
<< Streaking Devils, Pens clash in New Jersey
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of streaking Atlantic Division rivals square off
this afternoon as the New Jersey Devils try to match their longest winning
streak of the season against the rolling Pittsburgh Penguins.
After dropping their final th
<< Bruins hope to get on track versus Capitals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Bruins hope to avoid matching their longest
losing streak of the season this afternoon as they visit a Washington Capitals
club that has its eyes set on first place in the Southeast Division.
The Bruins haven't
Hurricanes blow into Durham seeking upset of Blue Devils >>
Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The seventh-ranked Blue Devils will look to keep
up the race for first place in the Atlantic Coast Conference as they host the
Miami-Florida Hurricanes for a bout at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
This will be the 18th
Wolverines and Spartans add another chapter to bitter rivalry >>
East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 23rd-ranked Michigan Wolverines will
try to be the first team to knock off the ninth-ranked Michigan State Spartans
at the Breslin Center when the two rivals square off in a Big Ten Conference
battle.
Berdych beats Monfils for title in France >>
Montpellier, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former Wimbledon runner-up Tomas
Berdych outlasted French crowd favorite Gael Monfils in Sunday's title match
at the Open Sud de France tennis tournament.
The top-seeded world No. 7 Berdych
Aceves, Red Sox avoid arbitration >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox and pitcher Alfredo Aceves
have agreed to terms on a one-year contract, avoiding arbitration with the 29-
year-old relief pitcher.
The deal is worth a reported $1.2 million with an add
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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JUPITER, Fla. -- The Foorida Marlins are preparing for the likelihood that right-hander
Josh Johnson won't be ready when the season starts April 2.
Grapefruit League action starts Wednesday, but Johnson, penciled in as the No. 2 starter, hasn't even thrown off a mound at full speed since September. He's experienced some soreness in his right forearm.
MySportsbook.com have the Marlins listed with baseball betting lines at +800 to win the NL East this season .
''You guys know the math. If he's not on the hill then he becomes an opening day roster issue,'' manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday. ''We're borderline now.''
Johnson, who finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 2007, was supposed to throw on flat ground Saturday. That was canceled when he woke up with pain.
He played catch on Wednesday with no pain but felt discomfort in a throwing session on Thursday. He's expected to try again Sunday.
''Like we always said from the very beginning, we're going to take it easy on him,'' Gonzalez said. ''He didn't feel right, so we shut him down. We're going to take it back to step one and see where we're at.''
Among the candidates to take Johnson's spot in the rotation are left-hander Chris George and right-handers Yusmeiro Petit and Jose Garcia.
Right-hander Sergio Mitre, who missed most of last season with arm and shoulder problems, also is behind.
With Johnson's status doubtful, Gonzalez said right-hander Ricky Nolasco will stay in the rotation and no longer will be considered a candidate for closer.
Additional basbeall odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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