Guerrero's homer lifts Rangers over Twins

Baseball Betting Lines

08/25/2010 - Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vladimir Guerrero's 430th career home run leading off the sixth proved to be the difference, as the Texas Rangers beat the Twins for the third straight day, 4-3, at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

Guerrero finished with three hits and two RBI for the Rangers, winners in four straight. Josh Hamilton also homered and drove in two, while Andres Blanco finished 2-for-3.

C.J. Wilson (13-5) continued his excellent season with six strong innings, allowing just three runs -- two earned -- on seven hits and two walks while fanning six. Matt Harrison notched his second save.

Danny Valencia went 3-for-4 with an RBI and a run scored for the Twins, who have lost four of five but still lead Chicago by 3 1/2 games after the White Sox lost to Baltimore. Jason Kubel and Denard Span each had two hits in defeat.

Brian Duensing (7-2) suffered his first loss since the All-Star break after yielding four runs, six hits and a walk in six frames.

After the Twins tied the game with two runs in the fifth, Guerrero put the Rangers back in front with his 23rd home run of the season leading off the sixth.

The Rangers' bullpen was able to protect the one-run lead. Michael Kirkman pitched around a two-out single in the seventh, and Darren O'Day, Darren Oliver and Alexi Ogando each recorded an out in a scoreless eighth.

Ogando stayed on to record the first out of the ninth, and Harrison retired two batters to polish off the win.

Hamilton's two-run blast in the opening inning put Texas on top, but the Twins quickly cut their deficit in half in the second on Valencia's RBI groundout.

Michael Young singled with one away in the third, moved to second on a wild pitch and scored on Guerrero's two-out base hit for a 3-1 Rangers advantage.

Valencia's base hit leading off the Minnesota fifth sparked the Twins to score twice and tie the game. J.J. Hardy singled two batters later, and Span's double plated one.

Orlando Hudson walked to load the bases with one out, and Joe Mauer's ground ball scored Hardy for a 3-3 score. Michael Cuddyer flied out with a chance to put the Twins ahead for the first time.

Game Notes

Wilson is 6-0 since the All-Star break...Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus went 0-for-4 to have a 14-game hit streak snapped...Hamilton has a hit and RBI in six straight games and has homered in four of his last five games...The season series is tied, 3-3, as the home team has won each contest.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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