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02/05/2012 - Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Garnett had 24 points and nine rebounds as the Boston Celtics handled the Memphis Grizzlies, 98-80, at TD Garden.
Paul Pierce added 21 points while Ray Allen and Chris Wilcox each netted 12 as the Celtics won their fourth straight game and remained perfect in a five-game homestand.
Rudy Gay had 21 points and seven rebounds to pace Memphis, which wrapped up a three-game road trip with a 1-2 record by dropping its last two contests.
After an 8-2 spurt by the Grizzlies put them up, 12-6, in the first quarter, the Celtics reeled off 10 straight points to jump ahead and held a 24-16 lead after the opening frame.
Memphis then came out hot in the second, opening the quarter with a 16-3 run that included five consecutive Boston turnovers and eight points by O.J. Mayo to take a 32-27 lead with less than seven minutes to go in the half.
The Celtics, though, responded with their own 16-3 swing to close out the half and owned a 43-35 advantage at the break.
Neither team shot well from long distance in the first half, as Memphis went 1-for-7 from three-point range and Boston connected on 1-of-10 shots from beyond the arc. Both teams also had 10 turnovers apiece in the first 24 minutes.
But Boston found its three-point stroke in the third quarter, converting on 5- of-8 shots from long distance -- three from Allen -- as the Celtics led by no less than five points and by as many as 12 en route to a 69-61 lead at the end of three quarters.
The game was never in doubt in the fourth, with Boston leading by double digits for the majority of the quarter.
Game Notes
Boston improved to 9-6 at home this season while Memphis fell to 5-9 on the road...The Celtics will also host Charlotte and the Los Angeles Lakers in the homestand...Boston recorded its first win of the season against a member of the Western Conference. The Celtics had been 0-4 against Western Conference foes...Pierce sits nine points shy of tying Larry Bird (21,791) for second on Boston's all-time scoring list...Mayo finished with 15 points for the Grizzlies.
<< Cologne snaps skid at Kaiserslautern
Kaiserslautern, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cologne snapped a three-game losing
streak Sunday as Odise Roshi scored in the 72nd minute of a 1-0 Bundesliga win
over 10-man Kaiserslautern at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
Cologne had lost its last three
<< Borini's brace powers Roma past Inter
Rome, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A goal in each half from Fabio Borini helped
Roma to a comfortable 4-0 win over Inter Milan at the Stadio Olimpico on
Sunday.
Juan put Roma in front after 13 minutes when he headed home Francesco Tott
<< United rallies to claim draw at Chelsea
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester United fell two points back of
Manchester City on Sunday, but Sir Alex Ferguson's side did well to claim a
point at Stamford Bridge as the club rallied from three goals down to snatch a
3-3 dra
<< Penny signs with Japanese club
Fukuoka, Japan (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Veteran pitcher Brad Penny has signed a
contract to play with the SoftBank Hawks of Japan's Pacific League, the team
announced on its website.
Penny spent last season with the Detroit Tigers, pitchi
No. 9 Michigan State defeats No. 23 Michigan >>
East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Draymond Green had 14 points and 16
rebounds, as No. 9 Michigan State earned a convincing 64-54 win over No. 23
Michigan on Sunday.
Keith Appling and Branden Dawson both added 10 points for the
Thomas lifts Bruins over Capitals >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tim Thomas stopped 35 shots to lift the
Boston Bruins to a 4-1 win over the Washington Capitals at Verizon Center.
Brad Marchand and Rich Peverley each had a goal and an assist while Milan
Lucic a
Kovalchuk leads Devils past Pens >>
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ilya Kovalchuk had a goal and two
assists on Sunday, leading the Devils to a 5-2 win over the Penguins.
Kovalchuk now has 10 points in his last four games -- all New Jersey
victories. Z
Rangers continue dominance of Flyers >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Artem Anisimov had a goal and two assists to
lead the New York Rangers to a 5-2 win over the Philadelphia Flyers.
Marian Gaborik had a goal and an assist while Michael Del Zotto, Brandon
Dubinsky and R
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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